The Arakan Army (AA) envisions the "Arakan Dream" – a self-governed Rakhine State for Myanmar’s Rakhine people, free from the country’s oppressive military, also known as the Tatmadaw. Recently, the AA has ousted the Tatmadaw from most of the villages and townships in Rakhine State, establishing itself as a formidable force in Myanmar's conflict landscape. The AA, alongside its political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA), is transforming captured territories by establishing administrative control and asserting authority – key features of a de facto state. Consequently, the AA has become indispensable in any future politico-military resolution of Myanmar’s ongoing crisis. However, the AA’s egregious treatment of the Rohingya minority undermines its gains, exacerbating ethnic tensions and worsening the dire humanitarian situation for internally displaced Rohingya. This mistreatment also complicates the repatriation of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh, threatening regional stability.
The Rise of the Arakan Army
Formed in 2009 and driven by Rakhine nationalism, the AA is a newcomer to Myanmar's protracted conflicts. It escalated its assaults on the Tatmadaw positions in 2015 and has been engaging in a war of attrition against the military-dominated central government since then. Following the turmoil caused by the February 2021 military coup, the AA broke its informal ceasefire with the Tatmadaw and joined the anti-junta resistance. The AA played a crucial role in Operation 1027, launched in October 2023, alongside the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), forming the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) rebel coalition. The AA's rapid offensive against the Tatmadaw secured large territories in western Myanmar, a strategically significant region along the Bay of Bengal bordering Bangladesh and near India and China. At present, intense fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of Rakhine State’s capital, Sittwe. The AA’s capture of Sittwe would severely blow the junta's weakening regional control in Western Myanmar.
The Junta’s Response: Destroy and Divide
The military junta has responded to the Rakhine insurgency with a policy involving destruction, ethnic manipulation, and coercion. Increased airstrikes have led to civilian casualties, displacement, and the destruction of fragile infrastructure. The Tatmadaw’s war on AA has decimated humanitarian facilities run by organizations such as the UN World Food Program and Médecins Sans Frontières, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. The razing of villages and rising civilian casualties have driven both Rakhine and Rohingya populations to seek refuge in Bangladesh, creating a new wave of refugees. Bangladesh has also been affected by cross-border artillery fire, causing the lives of Bangladeshi nationals and Rohingya refugees and disrupting navigation in the Naf River. Bangladesh has urged both the Myanmar junta and the AA to cease firing across the international border and has threatened retaliation for any violations of its territorial integrity.
Faced with significant troop losses due to desertions, the Tatmadaw has forcibly recruited Rohingya men, using them as cannon fodder in its war against the Rakhine rebels. By coercing the Rohingya, one of the world’s most persecuted minorities, to fight without adequate training or protection, the junta seeks to exacerbate ethnic tensions by exploiting Rakhine-Rohingya mistrust.
The Arakan Army’s Atrocity on the Rohingya
The AA's military successes have presented an opportunity to transform Rakhine State into an inclusive region for all ethnic minorities, including the Rohingya, Kamen, and Mro. However, reports of atrocities against civilians suggest a bleak outlook in this regard. The Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim ethnic minority, have long faced persecution in Myanmar, which intensified during the August 2017 'clearance operation' by the Tatmadaw. This operation, amounting to genocide, displaced nearly a million Rohingya people to Bangladesh. Currently, about half a million Rohingya are trapped in Rakhine State, living under severe restrictions and ungently needing humanitarian assistance. The ongoing conflict between the Rakhine resistance fighters and Tatmadaw has further marginalized this vulnerable population in the region. A UN OHCHR report from May 2024 documented the forced displacement of at least 4,000 Rohingya, with Buthidaung – a predominantly Rohingya township – largely burned. The report confirmed the Rakhine insurgents’ attacks on Rohingya civilians, including killings, abductions, and torture. Satellite imagery analysis corroborates widespread atrocities and arson by the AA on the Rohingya civilians in Buthidaung, Maungdaw townships, and surrounding villages.
The AA's atrocities against the marginalized Rohingya perpetuate a cycle of violence threatening to erase this ethnic minority from their homeland. The AA's growing power in Rakhine State alarms Bangladesh, which aims to repatriate the refugees it has been reluctantly hosting. An exclusionary Rakhine administration, dominated by ethnic Rakhine at the expense of the Rohingya and other minorities, would create a hostile environment, hindering the return of refugees from Bangladesh. Rohingya refugees in Bangladeshi camps face dire conditions, with little hope for local integration or a stable Rakhine State that would ensure their safety and fundamental rights.
The Way Forward
The AA’s advances in Rakhine State mark a pivotal moment for the region's future. The AA leadership's decisions regarding the Rohingya will determine the prospect of a multiethnic Rakhine State, also known as Arakan – a region rich in historic significance situated at the crossroads of civilizations. A return to the pre-coup status quo, characterized by the Tatmadaw’s systemic atrocities, would be counterproductive as the junta would continue its abusive governance. The AA must establish an inclusive governance structure in Rakhine State and hold its members accountable for committing atrocities against the Rohingya to maintain its rule. The international community cannot ignore the plight of the Rohingya any longer – providing humanitarian aid and ensuring civilian protection should be the immediate priorities. A concerted global effort is urgent to halt the cycle of violence, secure justice for the persecuted, repatriate the forcibly displaced from Bangladesh, and build a future where all ethnicities in Rakhine State can coexist with freedom and dignity.
Taufiq E. Faruque is currently pursuing an Erasmus Mundus Joint Master's in European Politics and Society. He participated in the EUVIP summer school ‘Navigating geostrategic dynamics in the Indo-Pacific: Focus on Southeast Asian and Myanmar’ at the Palacky University Olomouc in June 2024, and this blog post was created as part of an assignment for the summer school. He can be reached at tefduir@gmail.com